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The North Korean long-range ballistic missile testhas dramatically raised the stakes on the Koreanpeninsula, but experts say the US has limitedmilitary options to tackle the mounting threat fromPyongyang without risking retaliation that has thepotential to destroy Seoul.
朝鲜的远程弹道导弹试验大大提高了朝鲜半岛局势的风险，但专家们指出，要解决朝鲜构成的不断加剧的威胁、同时避免对方做出可能摧毁首尔的报复，美国的军事选项有限。
Mike Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs during theObama administration, said the only “viable path”to resolving the North Korean situation was for the US to work with China, because the militarytools available to the US carried very high risks.
曾在奥巴马政府担任参谋长联席会议主席的迈克?马伦(Mike Mullen)表示，解决朝鲜局势的唯一“可行路径”就是美国与中国合作，因为美国可以采用的军事手段都带有很大风险。
In 2006, as North Korea prepared to launch a long-range ballistic missile, William Perry, aformer US defence secretary, and Ash Carter, who was defence secretary under Barack Obama,urged George W Bush to launch a pre-emptive surgical strike to destroy the rocket.
2006年朝鲜准备发射一枚远程弹道导弹时，美国前国防部长威廉?佩里(William Perry)以及后来在巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)政府担任国防部长的阿什顿?卡特(Ashton Carter)呼吁小布什(George W Bush)采取先发制人的外科手术式打击，摧毁那枚火箭。
While the Pentagon has plans for possible strikes on North Korea, most experts say it hasfewer options now because advances by Pyongyang in recent years have raised the alreadyconsiderable risks attached to launching even a limited strike on the regime of Kim Jong Un.
虽然五角大楼备有对朝鲜发动潜在打击的计划，但多数专家认为它现在的选择更少了。在以前，哪怕只是对金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政权实施有限打击都有相当大的风险，朝鲜近些年的进步更是加大了这种风险。
“There is no heat coming from us that is going to work,” said Mr Mullen. “There are militaryoptions, but the question is what happens when you use them. It’s less about whether we canbe effective — to some degree we can have a significant impact — but what is Kim going todo?”
“我们头脑发热是没有用的，”马伦说，“存在军事选项，但问题是会有什么后果。关键不是我们能否实施有效打击——在某种程度上，我们可以产生重大影响——而是金正恩会怎么做?”
Mr Mullen said the risks ranged from a conventional North Korean attack on Seoul to thepossibility that Mr Kim could target South Korea with nuclear weapons. “The risk to every one ofthose [US] options is exceptionally high, and nobody knows, especially with this leader. He isso unpredictable and he hasn’t been unpredictable for long enough to become predictable.”
马伦表示，风险非常多，从朝鲜对韩国发动常规打击，到金正恩可能用核武器瞄准韩国。“(美国)每一种选项都有非常高的风险，谁也不知道会高到何种程度，尤其朝鲜有这么一位领导人。他是如此不可预测，他不可预测的时间还不够长，以致人们完全没法对他进行预测。“
James Mattis, the US defence secretary, alluded to the risks earlier this year when he said anymilitary solution would be “tragic on an unbelievable scale”. He later added that “it would be awar like nothing we have seen since 1953” in reference to the Korean war.
美国国防部长詹姆斯?马蒂斯(James Mattis)今年早些时候就暗示了这些风险，当时他表示，任何军事解决方案都将“造成令人难以置信的巨大悲剧”。他后来又说，“那将是一场自1953年朝鲜战争以来最为惨烈的战争”。
William Fallon, a retired admiral who headed Pacific Command in 2006, said the US had no goodoptions. “Do we think that if we launch some military option that Kim will give up his weapons?That is not going to happen,” he said. “We had a lot better intelligence on Iran and it wasobvious that military strikes were not a viable option then.”
2006年时担任美国太平洋司令部司令的退役海军上将威廉?法伦(William Fallon)表示，美国没有好的选择。“有些人是否认为，如果我们采取某种军事选项金正恩就将放弃他的武器?这种情况不会发生，”他说，“我们对伊朗的情报要好得多，但很明显那时军事打击也并非可行选项。”
Mr Fallon said Mr Kim stored his missiles in underground bunkers across the country whichmade them much harder to detect. “These guys are the best diggers in the world. Everything isunderground. I just don’t think it is realistic to cover all the likely sites before they couldretaliate. Back [in 2006] they wanted the world to see it and didn’t have a lot of options. Nowthey have many sites, and it is clear they are working on solid fuel rockets. That means youdon’t have that warning time.”
法伦表示，金正恩将导弹藏在朝鲜全国各地的地下掩体中，这让它们更难被侦测到。“这些家伙是世界上最好的挖掘者。所有的东西都在地底下。我认为要在他们能够实施报复之前覆盖所有的可能地点是不现实的。以前(2006年)他们希望让世界看到它，没有很多选项。现在他们有了很多地点，而且他们显然正在研究固体燃料火箭。这意味着你没有那种预警时间。”
One former military intelligence officer who specialised in identifying North Korean targetsduring the Clinton administration said it was increasingly hard to find them. “Deciding a targetlist was a nightmare then and it’s only gotten worse now,” the person said.
一位曾在克林顿(Clinton)政府时期专注于发现朝鲜目标的军事情报官员表示，越来越难以发现它们。这位官员说：“当时确定目标清单就是一场噩梦，现在变得更糟糕了。”
“Everything is hidden underground in mountain tunnels — it is really tough to target becauseyou can’t see it and it’s really deep,” said the former officer. “We used to call them tunnel rats— they use to dig underground like crazy, using unlimited slave labour and whatever theywanted the budget to be.”
他表示：“一切都秘密隐藏在穿山隧道——真的很难找到目标，因为你无法看到它，而且它真的很深。我们过去常将他们称为隧道鼠，他们就像疯了一样打洞，使用无限量的苦工，而且想要多少预算就有多少预算。”
Bruce Bennett, an expert on the North Korean military at the Rand Corporation, said NorthKorea had as many as 6,000 artillery systems along the demilitarised zone within strikingrange of Seoul. “Even if they open up only a fraction on Seoul they could cause devastation,”he said. “But now you have North Korea with nuclear weapons so you also have to worry aboutNorth Korea filing ballistic missile with possible nukes and maybe chemical weapons.”
兰德公司(Rand Corporation)的朝鲜军事问题专家布鲁斯?班尼特(Bruce Bennett)表示，朝鲜沿着非军事地带部署了多达6000套射程可达首尔的火炮系统。他说：“即使他们对首尔只启动一小部分，也可能造成严重破坏。现在朝鲜拥有了核武器，所以你还得担忧朝鲜发射可能搭载核弹或化武的弹道导弹。”
The Pentagon also faces a tougher task because the latest ICBM test relies on a mobile launcherthat makes any possible launch much harder to detect. North Korea has conducted two tests ofsolid fuel rockets, which require a much shorter lead time for launch.
五角大楼也面临更为艰巨的任务，因为朝鲜最新的洲际弹道导弹测试用的是移动发射架，这让发射活动更难以侦测。朝鲜进行了两次固体燃料火箭发射测试，这种发射需要的前置时间要短得多。
Bruce Klingner, a former Korea analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency, said previous wargames had concluded that the US and allies always won in the event of war on the peninsulabut “at the cost of hundreds of thousands of casualties”. He stressed that the repercussionswould be much more serious now given that North Korea possessed nuclear weapons. “Thelonger the bombing list the greater the likelihood of an all-out war,” said Mr Klingner.
曾担任美国中央情报局(CIA)朝鲜问题分析师的布鲁斯?克林纳(Bruce Klingner)表示，从以往的作战模拟演习可以看出，倘若朝鲜半岛发生战争，美国及其盟友总能赢，但“代价是几十万人的伤亡”。他强调称，鉴于朝鲜拥有核武器，战争的后果将更为严重。克林纳表示：“轰炸清单越长，爆发全面战争的可能性就越大。”
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