1. The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
在冬季非常寒冷的美国东北部的房屋，一直都使用传统的油料作为采暖的主要燃料。去年该地区经历了90天低于往年平均气温的严寒，并且气象预测家们预测这种天气会持续未来数年。而且，去年本地建造了很多的房屋。按此趋势，我们预测对于油料的需求将会增加. 所以我们建议对CI公司投资，该公司的主要业务之一就是家用采暖油料的零售。
1> 90多天的冬季看似很久，可以以前的天气情况没有提，要是一般的冬季都比这个时间长的话，那么这个冬天就是暖冬了，自然油料的使用量可能就不会提高，相反还会下降，而且泛泛的指出是在零下，没有说零下多少度，要是很冷的温度只持续了一小段时间，而大多数的时间都是比零度低一点点的话，那么温度总体上还是提高的，油料也是没有用处的>
2> 很多的住宅新建貣来，不见得很多人都会立刻搬进去居住，可能是房子的质量不好，也可能是人们的工资负担不貣那里昂贵的房价> 又或者交通不便利，环境不好等因素。。。。
3> 这个公司是零售的，而那里的人们，小区什么的都是承包给大的集团公司，他们这样的小公司可能没有市场>
2. The following appeared in a health newsletter.
"A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
一项为期十年的对于在骑自行车时戴头盔的作用的研究显示，10年前，所有骑车人中大约有35%报告说他们戴头盔，现在这个比例接近80%。然而另外一项调查显示在相同的十年期间，因骑车引貣的事故数量增加了200%。这些结果说明骑车人因为戴着头盔而感到更安全，因而导致他们面临更大的危险。因此，为减少自行车事故中严重伤害的数量，政府应该更多地对人们加强自行车安全的教育，并提供鼓励或要求骑车人戴头盔的课程。
1> 事故数量上升不能说明现在这个问题比以前严重。因为人口的增加，骑车的人增多，都可能使得相应的事故数目上升。在这个问题上，也许看看事故率是否有上升会更有说服力。
2> 出事故是否与戴头盔有关，论者没有相关资料。首先论者对于戴头盔会使人更容易冒险的结论完全没有根据，他没有提供任何资料证明戴头盔的人都觉得这样很安全。完全有可能戴头盔的人会比不戴的人更加小心。
3> 其次论者也没有提供有多少戴头盔的人出了事故，如果出事故的人大多数都没有戴头盔，这样就不能证明戴头盔会使得容易出现事故。
3. The following is part of a memorandum from the president of Humana University.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby Omni University increased by 50 percent. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease
from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the online programs takes place via the Internet. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow, and the cost of maintaining buildings has increased along with our budget deficit. To address these problems, Humana University will begin immediately to create and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni. We predict that instituting these online degree programs will help Humana both increase its total enrollment and solve its budget problems."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
去年报名参加附近Omni大学远程教学系统的学生人数上升了50%。同年，Omni用于宿舍和教室的开支比前一年显著下降，很可能是因为远程教学通过互动计算机录像授课。比较而言，在过去三年中，Humana学院的报名人数下降了，而且用于房屋维护的费用和财政赤字都上升。因此，为解决这些问题，我们也应该开展并积极推广与Omni一样的远程教学系统。我们预计推出这样的在线课程不光可以增加我们的招生也同时可以解决目前的财政赤字危机。
1>没有证据表明Omni大学的宿舍维护费用减少是因为网络授课的缘故
2>没于信息表明Humana大学和Omni是相类似的
3>其他因素：作者没有考虑是什么原因导致Humana大学维护建筑的费用上升;此外，也没有考虑是否有更好的办法吸引学生报考。
4. The following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company.
"Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a 500-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read would cost Acme only $500 per employee—a small price to pay when you consider the benefits. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read course."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
很多其他公司最近指出他们的员工参加了Easy Read的速读课程之后生产效率显著提高。这个课程的一名毕业生能够在两个小时之内读完长达500页的报告，另一名毕业生在一年内从助理经理上升到了副总裁。显然，你的阅读速度越快，在一天之内所能吸收的信息就越多。而且，Easy Read的学费只有每人500元，当考虑到它给A公司带来的效益的时候这就是个小数目。这个费用包括在S市举行的为期三周的研讨会和Easy Read新闻刊物的终生赠阅。显然，为了提高A公司的整体生产效率，它要求所有员工参加Easy Read的课程。
1> 升职的那个毕业生可能本身就很优秀，即使没有参加这个所谓的速读课程肯定也会有很好的表现，而且即使这个课程真的有那么些顸的作用的话，那么仅仅提到两个人的情况是不足以令人信服的，而且另一个例子也有问题，虽然读的快，可是他能记住多少内容，吸收多少精华?
2> 可能学费仅仅500块，但是还有别的费用，像什么阅读数据费，辅导费，或者要求你买什么教材的，再加上公司的人数众多，会是不小的开销，给公司造成巨大的财务负担>
3> 给的所谓的数据可能不过是广告性质的宣传数据，真正有作用的才不会免费的给我们，让你们感觉不贵，而且有兴趣去听听才是研讨会的目的所在。
5. The following is a recommendation from the Board of Directors of Monarch Books.
"We recommend that Monarch Books open a café in its store. Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Clearly, opening the café would attract more customers. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten. Opening a café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
我们建议m书店在电内开设一个咖啡厅。M书店在目前的店址上已经经营了20多年，并由于其广泛的图书种类而拥有了庞大的客户群体。很明显，新开设的咖啡厅会吸引更多的客户，空间可以通过撤出儿童书籍柜台来获得，因为最近一次全国调查显示10岁以下儿童的比率显著下降，所以儿童书就可能没以前那么畅销。开设新咖啡厅将会使m吸引更多客户并更好的与最近刚开设了咖啡厅的书店展开竞争。
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