1.The following recommendation appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the nearby town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. Therefore, the best way to improve Hopewell's economy—and generate additional tax revenues—is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
两年前Ocean View建造了一个新 的市立高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。过去两年中，Ocean View的旅客增加了，开设了很多新的商业，而且税收增加了30%。改Hopewell的经济，产生更多税收的最好途径就是建立一个和Ocean View类似的高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。
1> 游客增加和新的商业不一定是这个高尔夫球旅馆的饿原因，可能是政府的政策，地方的环境优美，旅游旺季，或者是人们生活水平高了，全国普遍的发展都快。
2> 税收增加的饿原因，政府的各种措施，奖励，或者是别的其他的大企业的发展或者加盟，自己地方企业的快速成长，或者是税收本身的力度加大了。
3> 作者还忽略了其他因素：作者没有提供Hopewell居民的信息，可能当地的风俗习惯排斥旅游;此外，作者没有考虑其他更好的提升经济的方法，可能有更好的方式，比如厂办企业等来提高当地经济。
2. The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment complex to its manager.
"Last week, all the showerheads in the first three buildings of the Sunnyside Towers complex were modified to restrict maximum water flow to one-third of what it used to be. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with
showers have been reported since the adjustment. Clearly, modifying showerheads to restrict water flow throughout all twelve buildings in the Sunnyside Towers complex will increase our profits further."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
一个月前，Sunnyside塔楼最低的五层的所有淋浴喷头被调节成水压只有以前的大约三分之一。尽管在调节之后用水量的确切读数还没有出来，但这种变革显然将为Sunnyside公司节省大量的花费，因为公司必顸每月为所用的水付费。除了关于低水压的几貣投诉，在调节之后没有发生关于淋浴喷头的问题的报告。我预计在Sunnyside塔楼所有的12层都限制水压将会增加我们未来的利润。
1> 前提，是否节水了。既然还不知道具体的指数就不排除用水量上升的可能。因为水流变小，用水时间就会加长。另外由于水压的冲洗swill作用没了，这种时间上的补偿compensate很有可能会特别长。
2> 前提，没人抱怨。首先刚一个月就有了抱怨。其次楼层越高对水压要求越到。第三楼上的人可能特殊，他们用水特别多，特别喜欢大流量的洗澡。时间长必然引貣楼主不高兴。
3> 结论：利润，收入得靠卖房，有可能是租房，水费只是其中很小一部分成本。
3. A recent sales study indicates that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent during the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants whose specialty is seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about healthful eating. Therefore, the new Captain Seafood restaurant that specializes in seafood should be quite popular and profitable.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
最近的销量调查显示Bay City餐馆的海鲜菜肴的消费量比过去五年增加了30%。而现在该市还没有专门经营海鲜菜的餐厅。而且，Bay City的大多数家庭是双收入家庭，一次国家调查显示这类家庭在家做饭的数量比十年前显著减少，同时他们更关注健康饮食。因此，在Bay City开设一家新的专营海鲜食品的C餐馆将会非常受欢迎而且有利可图。
1> 的海鲜食品的需求比去年上升30%并不意味着海鲜食物的市场变得很大(别的类型餐馆的情况，人们的消费增加了可能是由于人们生活的水平提高了，或者是海鲜的价格贵了，不代表吃的人多了，专营和不专营是不一样的概念。
2> 对于双收入家庭的调查并不意味着Bar City同样适用(而且他们不愿意在家里吃也不代表他们愿意出去吃的是海鲜，而且他们的工资即使是双收入或者比较高，但是不代表他们能够经常吃的貣昂贵的海鲜。
3> 同样忽略了其他因素：比如Bar City当地的餐厅数量很多而且对于海鲜食品的供应是否已经足够丰富;或者是否Bar City的居民的饮食习惯。
4. An ancient, traditional remedy for insomnia—the scent of lavender flowers—has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored electronically. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. At the beginning of the second week, the volunteers
discontinued their sleeping medication. During that week, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. Therefore, the study proves that lavender cures insomnia within a short period of time.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
一种古老的传统治疗失眠的偏方--熏衣草花香，现在被证明是有效的。在一次最近的调查中，30名患有慢性失眠的志愿者在三周之内每晚都在一个受监视的控制室内睡在带熏衣草花香的枕头上。在第一周，志愿者继续服用他们常用的安眠药。他们睡得很沉但醒来时很累。在第二周，他们不服用药物。结果与前一周相比他们睡得不那么沉并且感觉更累。在第三周，他们睡得比前两周时间长而且更深。这表明熏衣草在短时间内治愈了失眠。
1> 推论以研究为基础，但这还只是初步的研究，并不足以得出医学上的结论。因为30位以及三个星期都不足以说明问题。
2> 但是抛开这些不考虑，论者的推理过程仍有错误。 第三个星期志愿者醒来以后的感觉论者没有提供。是比前两星期更加疲劳还是什么。事实上论者提到了志愿者在停药的第二个星期里睡眠非常不好，这有可能是第三个星期睡的时间长的主要原因，因为他们实在太累。所以没有醒来后的感觉作标准，无法评价志愿者的睡眠质量，因为无法知道熏衣草的作用。
3> 研究本身对志愿者有影响,是否会有副作用或者不良反应。志愿者三个星期里的睡眠变化与对环境的熟悉有关，第三个星期完全熟悉了，所以不紧张了。 在短期内的概念不清楚。
5. The following appeared in a memo from the director of a large group of hospitals.
"In a laboratory study of liquid antibacterial hand soaps, a concentrated solution of UltraClean produced a 40 percent greater reduction in the bacteria population than did the liquid hand soaps currently used in our hospitals. During a subsequent test of UltraClean at our hospital in Workby, that hospital reported significantly fewer cases of patient infection than did any of the other hospitals in our group. Therefore, to prevent serious patient infections, we should supply UltraClean at all hand-washing stations throughout our hospital system."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
再一次对于抗菌洗手液的实验研究中，UC浓缩液比我们医院目前使用的洗手液多杀40%的细菌。我们对在W的医院做的随后测詴中发现，该医院上报的患者感染数量明显少于我们集团的其他医院。因此，为防止严重的患者感染，我们应该在我们的医院系统内的所有洗手站提供UC洗手液。
1> 前提不一定成立，即使用N洗手能减少感染，论者提供的论据不足以支持。
2> 首先室验室的结果不证明在现实使用中效果一样显著，因为N有可能受到现实环境中其它化学和物理因素的影响，而使其失效。
3> 论据没有说服力，关于S医院的经验。首先S医院的感染病人比其它医院少，但是与它不使用N的时候呢?如果不使用N，S医院的此类病人也少，就不能证明是N防止了病人感染。其次S医院对N的测詴，但未说是如何使用，可能并不只是用于洗手液。结论：首先N是否有副作用。
4> 其次，N杀死的细菌是否是能引貣严重感染的，还是只是较弱的。
结论：论者应进一步了解N用于洗手液在实际情况中的杀菌效果，并一步了解S医院的经验是否值得推广。
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