Afirca-EU Trade: Blown off course
欧非贸易：偏离主旨
Another trade deal adrift.
另一项贸易协定又难以尘埃落定。
The winds that waft along the Swahili coast changedirection with the seasons, a boon to traders in times past.
斯瓦希里海岸那随着季节改变的风向是过去商人的福音。
Shifts in the political winds are harder to predict.
而政治风向的转变更难预测。
Last July a proposed trade deal between five countries of the East African Community (EAC) and the EU was thrown into disarray when Tanzania backed out at the last minute.
去年七月，东非共同体(EAC)和欧盟五个国家之间的一项拟议中的贸易协议因为坦桑尼亚最后一刻的退出而陷入混乱。
An EAC summit, scheduled for months ago, was meant to find a way forward.
旨在找到一条前进的道路，几个月前召开了EAC峰会。
Held at last on May 20th in Dar es Salaam, after many postponements, only two presidentsshowed up.
去年5月20日在达累斯萨拉姆举办，经过多次延期，只有两位总统出席。
The deal is in the doldrums.
协议停滞不前。
The pact is one of seven “Economic Partnership Agreements” (EPAs) the EU wants to sign withregional groups in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific.
该协议是七个“经济伙伴关系协定”(EPAs)中欧盟希望与非洲区域集团，加勒比海和太平洋地区共同签署的一个。
The first was agreed with the Caribbean in 2008; southern Africa followed suit last year.
加勒比海在2008年最先同意;非洲南部跟着在去年进入。
But progress in west Africa has also stalled, with Nigeria raising objections.
但因为尼日利亚提出反对，西非的发展也停滞不前。
The EPAs were promoted as a new breed of trade deal, and were supposed to bringdevelopment and regional co-operation.
EPAs曾被宣传为一个新的贸易方式，并带来发展和区域合作。
So far they have brought neither.
到目前为止这些都没实现。
Negotiations on EPAs began in 2002.
2002开始了关于经济伙伴关系协议(EPA)的谈判。
Under previous conventions, the EU gave favourable market access to African, Caribbean andPacific countries, most of them former colonies.
根据以往的惯例，欧盟给予非洲、加勒比和太平洋国家有利的市场准入，这些国家大多是他们的前殖民地。
That fell foul of World Trade Organisation rules.
这违反了世界贸易组织规则。
Hence the idea of EPAs: reciprocal deals, requiring both parties to open their markets.
因此EPAS的理念：互惠协议，要求双方开放市场。
Two obstacles have to be surmounted.
这样必须克服两个障碍。
First, EPAs overlap with existing trade arrangements.
首先，EPAs与现有的贸易协定重叠。
The poorest countries, like Tanzania, already enjoy duty-free and quota- free access to the EUunder an initiative called “Everything But Arms”.
最穷的国家，像坦桑尼亚，在“一切，除了武器”的倡议下，已经享有免税和配额自由进入欧盟市场。
That could one day be withdrawn, but at present they see little to gain by opening theirmarkets.
这一天可能会被撤销，但目前他们认为开放市场并没有什么好处。
Second, countries within the same region face different incentives.
第二，同一地区的国家面临不同的激励。
Take Kenya, richer than Tanzania and not eligible for Everything But Arms.
以肯尼亚为例，比坦桑尼亚富裕，但没有“一切，除了武器”的特权。
It ratified the EPA last year and needs others to do so for the deal to come into force.
它去年正式批准了EPA，并且需要其他国家这么做，以使协议生效。
It recalls the pain of 2014, when the EU briefly slapped tariffs on its exports, such as cutflowers, and is frustrated by Tanzanian foot-dragging.
当肯尼亚回顾它2014的痛苦：欧盟简单粗暴地增加其货物(如鲜花)的出口关税;还有坦桑尼亚那折磨人的决定延迟。
A more profound question is whether EPAs reallyare good for development.
一个更值得人思考的问题是是否经济伙伴关系协定(EPA)真的有助于将来更好的发展。
African manufacturers worry about Europeancompetition: nascent industries are “prone tobeing overrun” by imports, warns Segun Ajayi-Kadirof the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, which lobbies against the west African deal.
尼日利亚制造商协会反对西非贸易，其成员S.A.K警告称，非洲产商对于欧洲竞争局势忧心忡忡：进口新兴产业易于"泛滥成灾"。
EU officials point out that slashing tariffs will help manufacturing by making importedmachinery cheaper.
另一方面，欧盟官员指出削减关税将有助于降低进口机械的价格。
African markets would open gradually, and some sectors are excluded.
除去部分产业，非洲市场将会逐渐开放。
Details vary, but EPAs typically liberalise about 80% of imports over 20 years.
每个地方的细节情况可能有所不同，但是经济伙伴关系协定(EPA)总体而言已经放宽约80%的进口产品超过20年了。
Many of those goods already enter duty-free.
这其中的很多进口产品已经享受免税待遇。
The EPAs would make it harder (though not impossible) for countries to use certain kinds ofindustrial policy, such as export taxes.
经济伙伴关系协定将使国家更难(尽管不是不可能)利用某种产业政策，比如出口税。
The EU does not think such policies do much good anyway.
反正欧盟也不认为这样的政策有什么好处。
But some governments do, and do not want their hands tied.
但是一些政府有这个需求，因为他们不希望自己手头紧张。
They fear that promised safeguards, such as an “infant industry” clause, to protect somedomestic businesses, would be hard to invoke.
他们害怕已经承诺的保障措施，例如为了保障国内企业的“婴儿保障条款”，将很难调用。
They will also lose tariff revenues, an important source of income in countries where othertaxes are tricky to raise.
他们还将失去关税收入，这是一个在其他税种难以提高的国家的一个重要的税种来源。
It all adds up to a “form of colonialism”, fumes John Magufuli, Tanzania's interventionistpresident.
这一切堆砌了“殖民主义的形式”，因此惹怒了坦桑尼亚的干涉主义总统约翰·马库夫里。
Economic evidence is mixed.
经济证据是混乱的。
Although models typically find trade gains on both sides, it is European exporters that would bethe biggest winners.
虽然贸易的政策通常找到双方的贸易的共赢，但此次则是欧洲出口商将是最大的赢家。
Within Africa, gains would mostly accrue to better-off countries in sectors such as sugar, meatand dairy (rather than to manufacturing industry).
在非洲，利益主要归于发展更好的国家的产业例如食糖、肉类和乳制品，而不是制造业。
Their extra sales to the EU would come partly at the expense of trade with African partners, says David Luke of the UN Economic Commission for Africa.
联合国非洲经济委员会的David Luke说，欧盟的额外销售的部分，是以与非洲伙伴达成贸易为代价的。
Ultimately “it's about politics”, argues San Bilal of the European Centre for Development PolicyManagement, a think-tank.
最终，“这关于政治”，欧洲发展政策管理中心(智囊团其中一员的)圣比拉尔说道。
The EPAs are mired in regional rivalries, he notes, against a backdrop of global tradeuncertainty after the Brexit vote and Donald Trump's election.
他指出，EPAs(经济伙伴关系协定)陷入区域性争斗，是在与英国退欧投票和唐纳德·特朗普获选所产生的全球贸易不确定性的大背景进行对抗。
The next step for the east African deal is a quixotic mission to Brussels with Yoweri Museveni, the Ugandan president, at the helm. Don't expect the trade winds to start blowing.
对于布鲁塞尔而言，下一步在东非的交易是个不切实际的任务，在乌干达总统约韦里·穆塞韦尼掌舵的情况下就不要指望“贸易风”能开始。
重点词组：
1.blow off 放出;吹掉
例句:He didn't know how to blow off hissuperfluous energy.
他不知如何发泄过剩的精力。
2.come into force 生效
例句:The law will no longer come into force.
这项法律将不再有约束力了。
3.access to 接近;进入
例句:They now have access to the mass markets of Japan and the UK.
他们现在进入了日本和英国的大众市场。
4.trade deal 商业交易
例句:They have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal.
他们一直在商谈一项双边贸易协定。
5.prone to 倾向于
例句:He was very prone to seasickness and alreadyfelt queasy.
他快晕船了，已经感到恶心了。
6.add up to 总计达...
例句:For a hit show, profits can add up to millions of dollars.
一场热门演出的利润可达数百万美元。
7.point out 指出
例句:Critics point out that the prince, on his income, should be paying tax.
批评家指出王子的收入应该纳税。
8.global trade 全球贸易
例句:The present global trade imbalance reflects a structural, system-wide problem.
当前，全球贸易的不平衡反映了一个结构性、体制上的问题。
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