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双语阅读 英国投票 到底哪里出了错?

2017-11-20来源: 经济学人浏览量:
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   The Vote: Whodunit?

  投票:谁干的?

  Post-mortem of Britain's electoral upset.

  英国大选意外结果的事后反思。

  The Conservative Party began the electioncampaign with an enormous lead and even on election day was expecting to increase itsmajority.

  保守党以一个大党派开始竞选,甚至期望在选举日增加多的席位。

  What went wrong?

  到底哪里出了错?

  The biggest unknown ahead of the election was turnout.

  选举前最大的未知是投票率。

  Labour was wildly popular among the young, but polling firms differed in their estimates ofhow many young people would vote at all.

  工党在年轻人中广受欢迎,但民意调查公司对最终有多少年轻人投票评估不同。

  In the event, Labour's young fans excelled themselves: turnout among people aged 18-24 was57%, according to a large post-election survey by YouGov, a pollster.

  在这次事件中,工党的年轻粉丝超越了他们自己:根据一家民意调查站YouGov选举后大型的民意调查,18到24岁这个年龄段人的投票率占57%。

  That is 14 percentage points greater than in 2015.

  这比2015年多了14个百分点。

  Age is now the main determining factor affecting party choice.

  现在,年龄已经成为政党选择的主要决定因素。

  The “phenomenal” generational divide has never before been so stark, according to JohnCurtice of NatCen Social Research.

  根据英国国家社会研究中心的John Curtice所说,代沟现象从来没有像现在这么突出。

  Mr Corbyn pulled in young people in droves by promising free university tuition.

  Corbyn先生通过承诺大学免学费来拉拢年轻人。

  Labour won 43 of the 60 constituencies where full-time students make up 15% or more of theadult population, five of which it gained from the Tories.

  工党赢得了60个选区中的43个,其中全日制学生占成年人口的15%或更多,其中有5个得自保守党。

  Overall, turnout rose by 2.5 points to 68.7%, the highest since 1997.

  总体来说,投票率上升了2.5个百分点到达68.7%,是自1997年以来的最高点。

  Seat-by-seat analysis shows that it increased most in areas with large populations of well-educated under-45s; areas that are ethnically diverse; and areas that voted to remain in theEuropean Union last year.

  Seat-by-seat分析显示:这现象(投票率上升)在那些受过良好教育的45岁以下的大人口地区,那些多民族地区和去年投票留在欧盟的地区最为明显。

  That probably cost the Conservatives.

  这可能会让保守党付出代价。

  Turnout in pro-EU London, where they lost six seats, increased by five points to surpass 70% for the first time since 1992.

  在支持欧盟的伦敦,他们失去了6个席位,在1992年以来第一次增长了5个百分点,首次超过了70%。

  Brexit paid some dividends to the Tories.

  英国脱欧支付股息给保守党。

  In 2015 the UK Independence Party won 12.6% of the vote with an anti-EU message.

  2015,英国独立党以反对欧盟的信息赢得了12.6%的选票。

  With the referendum won, its vote collapsed.

  随着全民公决的胜利,它的支持率骤跌。

  About 60% of those who voted for UKIP in 2015 defected to the Conservatives, according to apost-election survey by Lord Ashcroft.

  在2015年投奔了保守党中大约有60%的人投票赞成独立党,根据选举后的阿什克罗夫特勋爵的调查。

  The Tories did best in constituencies that votedheavily for Brexit: in six of their eight new Englishseats the Leave vote was over 60%.

  在进行选区保守党做的最好的,有很多选民支持退欧:在他们的八个新英国座位中,有六个席位的超过60%的投票支持退出。

  But Brexit hurt the party in other places.

  但英国退欧伤害了这个党派的其他地方。

  Excluding Scotland, there is a strong correlation between swings from the Tories to Labourand the vote in the EU referendum.

  除苏格兰外,从保守党到工党的摇摆和欧盟公投有着密切的联系。

  By our seat-by-seat analysis, Brexit was responsible for about half of the national swing fromthe Tories to Labour.

  我们一个一个来分析,英国退欧导致了一半的全国从保守党到工党的摇摆。

  Labour said as little as possible about the subject, allowing it to attract voters from both sidesof the referendum divide.

  工党尽可能少地谈论这个问题,希望从公投的两个方面吸引选民。

  It gained 18 seats in lukewarm Leave constituencies and 13 in areas that voted Remain.

  它在冷淡退欧的选区中获得了18个席位,在留欧的地区里获得了13个席位。

  All told, of the 28 seats the Tories lost to Labour, perhaps 17 can be explained by somecombination of higher turnout, large populations of young and educated voters, andopposition to a hard Brexit.

  总而言之,在保守党失去给工党的28个席位中,也许有17个席位可以通过这几个原因来解释:更高的投票率、大量的年轻受过教育的投票者以及对于脱欧的反对。

  That leaves 11 seats dotted around England where those elements were not sufficient toexplain the result.

  而剩下的11个席位则遍布英国,这些因素不足以解释结果。

  Seven years of austerity under the Tories are likely to have counted; so is Theresa May'sdour campaign, which failed to learn from the Scottish independence referendum of 2014 that positive messages matter.

  据估计,保守党时长七年的紧缩政策很可能也是一个原因,所以,特蕾莎·梅的顽强挣扎并没有从2014年的苏格兰全民公投中取得教训:正能量很重要。

  It was nearly very different.

  然而结果与大家的预料完全不同。

  The Tories lost four seats by 30 votes or fewer.

  保守党以30票甚至不足30票而输了四席。

  The current distribution of votes means that the number of seats won is more “elastic” relative to vote share than in the past, Mr Curtice notes.

  Curtice先生指出,根据选票的分布可以看出现在赢得席位的票数比过去更加注重“弹性”相对投票份额。

  A 2.5 percentage-point swing from Labour to the Tories would have won them 29 more seats, giving them a 51-seat working majority—and turning the narrative of Tory disaster into oneof triumph.

  从保守党2.5个百分点的跳票至工党使得他们赢得29个席位,这样一来他们就拥有占多数的51个席位——扭转了保守派的灾难故事,反败为胜。

 

  重点词组:

  1.the election campaign 竞选活动

  例句:He has already been blamed for his party'slackluster performance during the electioncampaign.

  他的政党在竞选活动中表现平平,他因此已受到指责。

  2.go wrong 出错;出岔子

  例句:When things go wrong, all of us naturally feel disappointed and frustrated.

  出问题时,我们大家自然都感到失望和沮丧。

  3.according to 通过

  例句:They both played the game according to the rules.

  他们俩都依章行事。

  4.make up 组成;化妆;编造

  例句:I think it's very unkind of you to make up stories about him.

  我认为你编造他的谣言很不厚道。

  5.be responsible for 对...负责

  例句:We are all entirely responsible for our actions, and for our reactions.

  我们都对自己的行为和反应负全责。

  6.independence referendum 独立公投

  例句:The United States says it will normalize diplomatic ties with Sudan once the results ofsouth Sudan's independence referendum are certified.

  美国说,一旦南苏丹独立公投的结果得到认证,它将同苏丹建立正常的外交关系。

  7.failed to 失败

  例句:Time and again political parties have failed to tackle this issue.

  各个政党处理这个问题时都屡屡失败。

  8.All told 总而言之

  例句:All told, consumers have a lot of choice& and they are exercising it.

  总之,消费者有很多选择,而他们都在行使选择权。

 

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